Belfast — City of Sinn?

In wake of the City's second Sinn Féin mayor, it may be worth pausing to consider how firm the Unionist grip on the City actually is. 

Sinn Féin made its debut entry into Belfast politics during the 1982 Assembly Elections when Gerry Adams topped the poll in the Belfast West constituency, and became the first member to be elected in Northern Ireland. His running mate, Alex Maskey wasn't quite so lucky, but did win a by-election in Upper Falls the following year becoming the first Sinn Féin councillor in Belfast. Furthermore, in the General election of the same year, Gerry Adams was elected to serve in the British House of Commons, defeating Belfast West's incumbent independent socialist, the late Gerry Fitt. 

In 1985, Sinn Féin stood across Belfast City Council and took 7 seats, outpolling the SDLP. Adams held unto his seat in 1987 and in 1989 the position was consolidated. Yet, 3 years later, during the 1992 General Election, a massive tactical voting campaign delivered a narrow victory to Dr Joe Hendron (SDLP) who ousted Adams by only 589 votes (Although Adams did increase his percentage share of the poll). 

In the 1993 election, for the first time Sinn Féin could claim to be the largest party in the city, taking in excess of 24000 votes.  They did however have fewer councillors than the UUP, and all of these were based in the West or Oldpark areas of the City.

In the mid '90s the four Belfast seats were extended into Newtonabbey, Castlereagh and Lisburn. These boundaries were first used for the 1996 forum elections. Sinn Féin now dominated West Belfast, taking four out of five seats, and won another in the North of the City. The following year, Adams took back Belfast West with an 8000 majority, and weeks later, unionists lost control of the council. the Alliance now held the balance of power, and Alban Maginness, SDLP, became Belfast's first nationalist Lord Mayor. 

This is a textbook example of how Proportional Example can give vast powers to minor parties.

1998 was not especially dramatic for Sinn Féin, they held all 5 seats in the City, however they did progress in Western Ulster. It was in 2001 when major growth took place, and they became the largest group on Belfast council. Two years later, Alex Maskey (with Alliance support) became Sinn Féin's first Lord Mayor, and the party gained seats in North and South Belfast. 

In the most recent set of elections, unionists slipped back further, losing two MLAs across Belfast. One blogger and election analyst saw the DUP gaining seats in North, East and South Belfast (at the expense of the UUP, PUP and SDLP). However the results were such that the DUP gained from the UUP in the East, but lost Diane Dodds' seat to Sinn Féin, and a large split and poor transference cost the UUP a seat in the South, gained by the Alliance (despite having three full quotas!). 

The breakdown of seats in Belfast was :

Sinn Féin —  8

DUP — 6

SDLP —  4 

UUP —  3

Alliance —  2 

PUP —  1 

Now the situation for unionists in Belfast may look pessimistic, but I think it can be turned around. The problem, is that when unionists seem down, they retreat to their traditional old comfort zone, that is attacking each other. This is highly counter productive. For a start it puts UUP voters off transferring to the DUP and vice versa. In addition, and fundamentally, it isn't a glowing advertisement to encourage unionists to actually vote in the first place. Turnout is key. Diane Dodds saw a sharp increase in her vote, but Sinn Féin had its voters motivated and they turned out in drones to secure the coveted fifth seat, and what's more balanced perfectly. A feat that most other parties cannot achieve, or at least haven't achieved so far.

The RPA also gives some hope. Expanding Belfast into some of the neighboring councils (areas that one would clearly see as part of Belfast) might give us a small but important advantage. Unionists did win a majority on the expanded Derry City Council, once, in 1973. Although we cannot afford to let the province's first city go the same way as its second, and boundaries alone will not be enough. Furthermore, we need councillors who will be available for the knife edge votes. Of the city's 25 unionist councillors, 8 are MLAs, 4 of which are also ministers, and two of these MPs. With so many double, triple and even quadruple jobbing, it will not be possible for full unionist attendance, something that must be put right!